This article is a recap of an earlier piece taking a look at Hansen Natural's
(HANS:
sentiment,
chart,
options)
earnings report. The takeaway of the earlier article was "sell if you think energy drinks are another fad; buy if you think that 20 years of Red Bull history has established a caffeine-source alternative to Starbucks (SBUX). Boom or bust, Hansen remains a legitimate leader in that market." Well, after the disappointing third-quarter sales results and subsequent stock plunge, the author revisits "corporate leadership issues." Actually, the leadership issues surround the company's coffee-based Java Monster drink. Management has called it a "lower-margin" product, but the company has been "pushing hard" to get it on store shelves. The question raised concerns the "wisdom of chasing sales at the expense of margins, unless there's some serious brand-building going on. I don't think Java fits that well in Hansen's product portfolio, so the brand argument gets a bit lost."
The article also notes that manufacturing problems, higher dairy prices, and distribution snafus contributed to "a hefty revenue miss $11 million short of Wall Street's $258 million forecast." The company's CEO, Rodney Sacks, believes that "the expansion of [the energy drink] category into this coffee area is an extremely exciting number for us. We think that that will help expand the category."
I will not argue that the company may want to "expand the board of directors by a couple of seats, and bring in some heavy-duty product-development or marketing experts," as it could help HANS to get some "new eyes" looking at its situation. However, I don't think that this reasoning alone justifies being bearish on this company. Yes, the stock plunged after its third-quarter earnings and revenue report; but, the shares have found some support. The equity has come to rest on its 80-week moving average, which it has never closed below. Let's see if this trendline can help usher the stock above the 45 level, which has acted as support in the past.
There is some sentiment in place that could help push the stock higher. Currently, 8.74% of HANS's float is sold short, which could spark a short-covering rally should any good news chase the bears from their pessimistic perches. The problem here is that it would only take 2.6 days to buy back these shorted shares, nearly eliminating the chance for a sustained short-squeeze situation.
A shift in sentiment from analysts could help push HANS higher as well. Zacks shows just 4 analysts following the firm, 3 of which rate it a "hold." A shift to the bullish from this commitment-fearing bunch could help the stock regain some success, so keep an ear out for any good news. Further bullish momentum could come from positive initiations, should analysts decide that the stock's recent drop is a mere speed bump in the stock's road higher.
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