The theme of this article is basically that, while things may have been bleak for Pfizer (PFE: sentiment, chart, options) in recent months, the pharmaceutical giant could be on the upswing. "Though a pariah on Wall Street," the piece states, "patient investors may find that shares of troubled drug-giant Pfizer are getting easier to swallow."

The shares have lost 57% of their value since hitting a record high in 2000, and are down 9% in the past 12 months. The article attributes this decline to "falling revenues, failed drugs, and widespread doubts that [Pfizer] can replace drugs losing their patents."

But the stock looks oversold, and a handsome dividend payout of 5.1% means investors could "have little to lose." "In fact," it proceeds to argue, "the stock could return 30% or more in the next two years if management can pull off the right acquisition to offset falling revenues."

One analyst notes that PFE could be a "value play" for those waiting to pony up for shares and wait for results. The company has said it will cut costs by $2 billion between 2006 and 2008, and has reported plans to move promising new medications down the pipeline. This year, however, PFE has introduced just one new drug, and it has scrapped its diabetes drug Exubera and abandoned several other experimental treatments.

Additionally, Pfizer is cash-rich, upping its ability to raise its dividend or repurchase shares. If profits fail to build for the next few years, the dividend will reward investors as they await a payoff.

There is a lot of "good things come to those who wait" in this article. While a good axiom in life, the stock market is ripe with too much opportunity to waste one's investments in a position that may not return anything but a nice dividend for months or even years. An analyst with Edward Jones quoted in this very piece opines that Pfizer's pipeline of new drugs won't begin helping the bottom line until 2011. And a Deutsche Bank analyst argues, "There is no acquisition that can solve all of Pfizer's trouble."

While the article describes PFE as a "pariah on Wall Street," I'm not exactly seeing extreme levels of pessimism. For starters, only 1 of 16 analysts following the stock has named it a "sell," while 6 have given PFE a rating of "buy" or better. Secondly, the short sellers have hardly come to play. Just 0.60% of the equity's float is sold short, for a paltry short-interest ratio of 1.1 days to cover.

And the options crowd is optimistic as well. In the December and January series, the bulk of call open interest is located at out-of-the-money (overhead) strikes. Not only does this imply the speculative crowd's preference for the bullish camp, but it provides a foundation for short-term options-related resistance.

The stock may have dropped just 9% in the past 12 months, but the truth is that PFE hasn't managed any prolonged periods of upside since the last millennium. With the pipeline uncertain and so many other opportunities in the market, this may not be an opportunity worth waiting for.